I came across more interesting research about possible “placebo effects” in decision making. According to the two studies cited below, receiving formal training in lie detection (e.g. so that law enforcement officers are more likely to detect a untruthful statement by a suspect) has a curious effect. The training greatly increases confidence of the experts in [...]
Entries from February 2010
Can “expert” training increase confidence while making judgments worse?
February 24th, 2010 · 7 Comments
Tags: General Topics · How To Measure Anything Blogs · The Failure of Risk Management Blog
Still no evidence…
February 20th, 2010 · 9 Comments
I get many emails about the validity of Risk Maps, Risk Scores and Risk Matrices in risk analsysis. I know there are a lot of passionate proponents of these methods (and many heavily-invested vendors) but there is still no evidence that such methods improve forecasts or decisions.
Read my skeptical look at many risk analysis methods [...]
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Tags: The Failure of Risk Management Blog
2010 Spring Webinars are Available
February 8th, 2010 · No Comments
See the webinars page to sign up for intensive training sessions for Applied Information Economics. You can take the popular “Calibration” webinar or even sign up for the full AIE Module I & II training (required for AIE Level I certification). Each webinar is scheduled for multiple dates and times so that you are sure [...]
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Tags: General Topics