I came across more interesting research about possible “placebo effects” in decision making. According to the two studies cited below, receiving formal training in lie detection (e.g. so that law enforcement officers are more likely to detect a untruthful statement by a suspect) has a curious effect. The training greatly increases confidence of the experts in [...]
Entries Tagged as 'The Failure of Risk Management Blog'
Can “expert” training increase confidence while making judgments worse?
February 24th, 2010 · 7 Comments
Tags: General Topics · How To Measure Anything Blogs · The Failure of Risk Management Blog
Still no evidence…
February 20th, 2010 · 9 Comments
I get many emails about the validity of Risk Maps, Risk Scores and Risk Matrices in risk analsysis. I know there are a lot of passionate proponents of these methods (and many heavily-invested vendors) but there is still no evidence that such methods improve forecasts or decisions.
Read my skeptical look at many risk analysis methods [...]
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Tags: The Failure of Risk Management Blog
Evolving Taxonomy of Major Risks
September 11th, 2009 · 10 Comments
Originally posted at http://www.howtomeasureanything.com, on Friday, September 11, 2009 9:02:59 AM, by Unknown.
“On page 47 of HTFRM Mr. Hubbard refers to the website for viewing an evolving taxonomy of major risks.
I am having trouble locating it, am I missing something?”
Not at all. We haven’t had much discussion about it so it was evolving very slowly.
But [...]
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Tags: The Failure of Risk Management Blog
How do you backtest a probability estimate?
August 25th, 2009 · No Comments
A question asked by a subscriber:
I am sympathetic to the concept of using a Monte Carlo approach, perhaps using a cascaded series of Monte Carlo models to model inputs, to produce an estimated probability distribution. This seems like a more reasonable approach to modelling reality than to assume the distribution follows a normal or lognormal [...]
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Tags: Reality Check on Methods